New Tuberculosis vaccines for people with HIV
Mathematical modelling study assessing how different strategies for vaccinating people with and without HIV could reduce TB cases among people with HIV in high HIV/TB burden countries
LSHTM
A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options
Develops a new TB transmission model to help decision-makers comapre the epidemiological impact of different TB interventions and allocate resources. The model incorporates diagnosis, treatment, drug resistance, HIV status, age, and vaccination status, and was calibrated using data from 29 high burden countries. It demonstrates the potential impact of comprehensive TB interventions in Indonesia and Nigeria, including the possible use of a post-exposure TB vaccine
How can new TB vaccines be effectively introduced in Indonesia?
Explores how Indonesia could prepare for and successfully introduce a new adult TB vaccine. It brought together 28 stakeholders form TB, immunisation and international organisations to examine potential target popualtions, delievery strategies, financing , vaccine accpetability, helath system readinessfor vaccine introduction
Global impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions
The modelling study compares the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of TB vaccination with other TB interventions. It models vaccination scale-up in Brazil, India, and South Africa and estimates that vaccination could prevent 15-28% of symptomatic TB episodes by 2050. It provides evidence to inform investment, policy, and planning for future TB vaccine introduction and scale-up.
Potential implications of reduced tuberculosis vaccine efficacy in those with undernutrition on overall vaccine impact in India
Nutritional status is a leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB). In India up to half of all
TB episodes are attributed to undernutrition. Given the impact of nutrition on the immune system,
vaccine characteristics such as efficacy and duration of protection could vary depending on nutritional status. Therefore, previous vaccine impact estimates may be overestimated. We re estimated vaccine impact in India with reduced efficacy with undernutrition
The implications of using different time horizons when evaluating investment to prevent infectious disease
A lifetime time horizon is conventional for cost-effectiveness analysis, but not routine for transmission-dynamic modeling, given uncertainty in future epidemiological dynamics and high computation costs. We demonstrate implications of alternative analytic time horizons with a case
study of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccine introduction
New tuberculosis vaccines are in late-stage trials, but how confident is the public in high burden countries in vaccines?
With tuberculosis (TB) vaccine candidates in late-stage trials, it is important to prepare for implementation to avoid delays upon licensure. General confidence in vaccines has been identified as an anticipated barrier to introducing new TB vaccines. In the absence of detailed TB specific vaccine acceptability and confidence data, we analysed currently available vaccine confidence data in countries appearing on one of the World Health Organization (WHO) high burden lists to investigate vaccine confidence in countries with a high TB burden
Preparing the landscape for TB vaccines: South Africa’s strategic planning
The South African TB Think Tank is a national collaboration of TB stakeholders,
including researchers, policymakers, clinicians, and civil society. Chaired by the Chief Director of
the National TB Programme (NTP), members consolidate TB research through several technical
task teams, providing evidenced-based policy recommendations to the Department of Health. To
support the national TB vaccine initiative, the TB Think Tank provided recommendations for the
recently released NTP Strategic Plan, 2023-28
Forecasting TB vaccine demand to support supply and procurement planning
We present insights from two workshops with global health funders, academics, and in country TB and vaccine decision-makers and estimates of potential global demand for TB vaccines
using a bottom-up, constrained demand forecasting model. The model was informed by the
workshops, publicly available target product profile, landscape assessment of vaccines in
development, information from proxy vaccines sourced from the WHO databases and peer reviewed literature, and interviews with TB and vaccine experts
Modelling to estimate the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV
This project will inform tuberculosis (TB) prevention efforts by estimating the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission model. HIV confers the largest relative risk of TB, and new TB vaccines could be an important tool to prevent TB; however, modelling studies have not systematically investigated how new vaccines will affect TB burden in PLHIV. In stage 1 of this project, we aim to investigate TB vaccine impact in PLHIV where vaccine product characteristics and delivery vary by recipient HIV status. In stage 2, we aim to quantify how complex vaccine targeting strategies and incorporating additional granularity in HIV/AIDS natural history might affect vaccine impact estimates in PLHIV