India
TBVacMod
Estimate the health impact of introducing a prevention of disease vaccine for adult and adolescents in moderate to high TB burden countries. Explore different vaccine introduction scenarios based on input from country stakeholders, including national TB program and immunization program officials, on priority groups for vaccination and likely vaccine coverage. The project's key questions include: 1) who are the priority groups in different countries and what is expected level of vaccine coverage in those groups
2) how will vaccine impact differ in different introduction scenarios (vary age, priority group, coverage)
Facing up to reality? What to do if M72/AS01E doses are limited
The Ph3 trial for the vaccine candidate M72/AS01E is underway, and, assuming a
positive result, could be licensed by 2030. Modelling suggested a large potential impact from
introducing M72/AS01E but assumed an unconstrained dose supply. However, at least initially, it is
likely that M72/AS01E will be supply-constrained. We estimated the effect of decisions surrounding
the allocation of constrained doses on the potential global impact of M72/AS01E
Cost and Cost Effectiveness of Novel Tuberculosis Vaccines in Low-and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review of Modelling Studies
This review addressed the costs and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines compared to the current standard of care (BCG) in various settings and for different age groups in LMICs
Advancing evidence-informed in-country decision-making for new TB vaccine introduction: A responsive and integrated vaccine modelling approach from India
As new TB vaccines move into late-stage development, it is imperative for high-burden
countries like India to ensure timely and effective evidence-generation to inform decision-making
and accelerate vaccine development and introduction. To enable this, an in-country vaccine
mathematical modelling effort has been initiated in India.
Part of Change 2.0
Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).
FAST-TB MOD
FAST-TB population and cost-effectiveness modelling core: This project will accelerate tuberculosis (TB) research translation by using mathematical modelling to address key priority questions as part of FAST TB, linking an expanded state-of-the-art modelling framework with country level data and cross consortium communication around new TB treatment regimens, diagnostics and other interventions.
Creating evidence to support tuberculosis (TB) national and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB
In strong collaboration, we (India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, UK) will create evidence to strengthen capacity and sustainably support high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBC) and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB, by using modelling tools to address key questions on drug-resistant (DR-)TB, new TB vaccines and other interventions, and extend and apply a state-of-the-art TB model, to estimate the relative health, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact, of new and existing interventions, as well as their optimal combination.
Potential implications of reduced tuberculosis vaccine efficacy in those with undernutrition on overall vaccine impact in India
Nutritional status is a leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB). In India up to half of all
TB episodes are attributed to undernutrition. Given the impact of nutrition on the immune system,
vaccine characteristics such as efficacy and duration of protection could vary depending on nutritional status. Therefore, previous vaccine impact estimates may be overestimated. We re estimated vaccine impact in India with reduced efficacy with undernutrition
Evolution of Tuberculosis Vaccine Modelling studies: Insights from studies in India
Focusing on India, we performed a scoping review to identify and evaluate studies that have used mathematical modeling to assess the epidemiological and economic
impact of TB vaccine introduction in India