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Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis:

2026

Uses a dynamic TB transmission model to estimate how the population impact of future TB vaccines changes depending on whether vaccines prevent progression to infectious symptomatic TB only, all infectious TB, or all TB disease.

TB vaccine development: monitoring international patent filings to anticipate access challenges

2025-2026

M72/AS01e, MTBVAC

Maps international patent filings for two late-stage TB vaccine candidates, MTBVAC and M72/AS01E, as well as the QS-21 adjuvant used in M72/AS01E

Tuberculosis policy should shift focus to population-level interventions for greatest impact

2026

Hypothetical vaccines

Uses mathematical modelling to compare the population-level health and economic impacts of TB interventions in Brazil, India and South Africa. It highlights mass vaccination and community-wide screening as interventions with the potential for substantial epidemiological impact.

Facing up to reality? What to do if M72/AS01E doses are limited

M72/AS01e

The Ph3 trial for the vaccine candidate M72/AS01E is underway, and, assuming a positive result, could be licensed by 2030. Modelling suggested a large potential impact from introducing M72/AS01E but assumed an unconstrained dose supply. However, at least initially, it is likely that M72/AS01E will be supply-constrained. We estimated the effect of decisions surrounding the allocation of constrained doses on the potential global impact of M72/AS01E

Cost and Cost Effectiveness of Novel Tuberculosis Vaccines in Low-and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review of Modelling Studies

Hypothetical vaccines, M72/AS01e

This review addressed the costs and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines compared to the current standard of care (BCG) in various settings and for different age groups in LMICs

Advancing evidence-informed in-country decision-making for new TB vaccine introduction: A responsive and integrated vaccine modelling approach from India

Hypothetical vaccines

As new TB vaccines move into late-stage development, it is imperative for high-burden countries like India to ensure timely and effective evidence-generation to inform decision-making and accelerate vaccine development and introduction. To enable this, an in-country vaccine mathematical modelling effort has been initiated in India.

Part of Change 2.0

2024-2027

Hypothetical vaccines

Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).

IAVI

1. Understand likely use cases, delivery strategies, target populations, and drivers of preference and adoption; 2. Project demand; 3. Evaluate potential willingness to pay and budget impact; 4. Explore innovative financing mechanisms;

TBVacMod

Estimate the health impact of introducing a prevention of disease vaccine for adult and adolescents in moderate to high TB burden countries. Explore different vaccine introduction scenarios based on input from country stakeholders, including national TB program and immunization program officials, on priority groups for vaccination and likely vaccine coverage. The project's key questions include: 1) who are the priority groups in different countries and what is expected level of vaccine coverage in those groups 2) how will vaccine impact differ in different introduction scenarios (vary age, priority group, coverage)

Global impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions

2026

Hypothetical vaccines

The modelling study compares the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of TB vaccination with other TB interventions. It models vaccination scale-up in Brazil, India, and South Africa and estimates that vaccination could prevent 15-28% of symptomatic TB episodes by 2050. It provides evidence to inform investment, policy, and planning for future TB vaccine introduction and scale-up.