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Hypothetical vaccines

A hypothetical TB vaccine refers to a vaccine that currently does not exist. It is a hypothetical scenario with a vaccine that may protect against infection and/or disease and/or recurrence to a certain extent. Usually WHO guidance is followed to inform these hypothetical vaccines (An investment case for new tuberculosis vaccines (who.int).

Targeted Tuberculosis (TB) Vaccination Strategies in the United States: A Modeling Study

2026
Hypothetical vaccines
Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in the United States has remained elevated above pre-pandemic levels since 2021, with over 85% of cases resulting from reactivation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection. New vaccines that would prevent TB in adults are under development, but the potential health impact of a program prioritizing non-U.S.-born persons and persons with medical comorbidities, including persons living with HIV (PLWH), has not been evaluated.

ZAMSA-TB: Advancing epidemiological methods for surveillance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

2024-2028
Hypothetical vaccines, M72/AS01e
Multi-country study developing and validating clinic-based convenience sampling of Mtb immunoreactivity (IGRA) in children aged 1-5 as a sentinel measure of recent TB transmission. Outputs include geospatial identification of high-transmission neighbourhoods to target adult/adolescent vaccine delivery, and Monte Carlo simulations to size convenience-sampling surveys able to detect population-level vaccine effectiveness during roll-out.

Assessing the readiness of communities and civil society to contribute to new TB vaccine policy making and implementation

2024-2026
Hypothetical vaccines
Three-part study to assess the readiness of community and civil society to contribute to TB vaccine policymaking and implementation at national, regional, and global levels, and the investments funders should make to strengthen community capacity and engagement. 1) No Vaccines Without Us: A Global Landscape Analysis of Civil Society Engagement in TB Vaccine Preparedness is based on a global survey of 125 civil society organizations active in the TB response in 42 countries. 2) Country Policy Portraits, written by local activists, illustrate how vaccine policy is made in seven countries — Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Malawi, Mongolia, South Africa, and Vietnam — and propose reforms to strengthen the representation of community partners in national immunization decision making. 3) TB Vaccine Access in “4D”: A Roadmap Charting Civil Society Actions for Equitable Access outlines a series of actions civil society can take to assure access to new TB vaccines along four dimensions: development, delivery, demand, and data.

Tuberculosis Integrated Model-Based Evidence and Recommendations (TIMBER) for robust TB vaccine decision-making by National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) in Africa.

2025 - 2028
Hypothetical vaccines
The TIMBER study is a multi-country research study aimed at strengthening the use of model-based evidence to support national decision-making on the introduction of new TB vaccines in Africa. The study brings together National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs), policymakers, researchers, modellers and other stakeholders in South Africa, Kenya and The Gambia to co-create models and explore how modelling can be used effectively within the WHO Evidence-to-Recommendation process. TIMBER will generate country-specific evidence, strengthen capacity for using modelling in vaccine policy decisions, and develop practical approaches to support timely, evidence-informed introduction of new TB vaccines.
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