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FAST-TB MOD

2023-2026

FAST-TB population and cost-effectiveness modelling core: This project will accelerate tuberculosis (TB) research translation by using mathematical modelling to address key priority questions as part of FAST TB, linking an expanded state-of-the-art modelling framework with country level data and cross consortium communication around new TB treatment regimens, diagnostics and other interventions.

Creating evidence to support tuberculosis (TB) national and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB

2024-2028

Hypothetical vaccine

Ongoing

In strong collaboration, we (India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, UK) will create evidence to strengthen capacity and sustainably support high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBC) and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB, by using modelling tools to address key questions on drug-resistant (DR-)TB, new TB vaccines and other interventions, and extend and apply a state-of-the-art TB model, to estimate the relative health, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact, of new and existing interventions, as well as their optimal combination.

Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in China, South Africa, and India

2020

BCG revaccination, M72/AS01e

Completed

To inform vaccine development decision making, we modeled the impact of hypothetical tuberculosis vaccines in three high-burden countries.

The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug resistant tuberculosis in India and China

2021

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India.

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India

2016

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population.

The health and economic benefits possible with novel tuberculosis vaccines – A modeling study in India and Indonesia

2021

M72/AS01e

Completed

We estimated gains possible with novel post-exposure vaccines, in India and Indonesia. We modeled vaccine impact on TB incidence, TB mortality, and on national income growth and the intrinsic value of living longer, known as Full-income.

Epidemiological impact of targeted interventions for people with diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis transmission in India: Modelling based predictions

2020

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

We aimed to assess the impact on TB disease of several intervention strategies targeting people with DM in India.

Cost-effectiveness of routine adolescent vaccination with an M72/AS01E-like tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa and India

2022

M72/AS01e

Completed

We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of six scenarios of routine adolescent M72/AS01E-like vaccination in South Africa and India.

Affordability of adult tuberculosis vaccination in India and China: A dynamic transmission model-based analysis

2021

M72/AS01e

Completed

To estimate the total disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by the vaccination programme, we simulated a 50% efficacy vaccine providing 10-years of protection in post-infection populations between 2027 and 2050 in India and China using a dynamic transmission model of M. tuberculosis.

Epidemiologic study to assess the IGRA positivity in populations with a high TB

2021 - 2024

M72/AS01e

Ongoing

Tuberculosis (TB) vaccine efficacy trials evaluating prevention of disease must be feasible in size and duration and would ideally take place at clinical trial sites that enroll from communities with the highest incidence rates. In preparation for the Phase 3 trial of the investigational M72/AS01E-4 vaccine, we conducted a multi-country study, using interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) positivity as a proxy for expected incidence of TB. In addition to the above objects, the results from this study could help in in new vaccine introduction to identfy TB hotspot areas.