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The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine | LSHTM

The potential health and economic impact of introducing the vaccine candidate VPM1002 to prevent tuberculosis disease in low- and middle-income countries

2026

This study estimates the potential health and economic impact of introducing the TB vaccine candidate VPM1002 in 79 low- and middle- income countries. It models routine vaccination and vaccination campaigns, estimating TB cases and deaths averted and the cost-effectiveness of different introduction scenarios. It provides evidence for decisions about the potential future introduction and scale-up of VPM1002

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries

2023

Hypothetical vaccines

Estimates the potential economic impact of introducing novel TB vaccines in 105 low- and middle- income countries. It compares ifnant and adolescents/ adult vaccination scenarios and models their effects on TB- related mortality, morbidity, healthcare costs and GDP. Finding support decision making on the future development and introduciton of novel TB vaccines

Facing up to reality? What to do if M72/AS01E doses are limited

M72/AS01e

The Ph3 trial for the vaccine candidate M72/AS01E is underway, and, assuming a positive result, could be licensed by 2030. Modelling suggested a large potential impact from introducing M72/AS01E but assumed an unconstrained dose supply. However, at least initially, it is likely that M72/AS01E will be supply-constrained. We estimated the effect of decisions surrounding the allocation of constrained doses on the potential global impact of M72/AS01E

Acceptability of and confidence in novel tuberculosis vaccines among adults living with HIV

2026

Hypothetical vaccines

Objective: Several novel tuberculosis vaccines (NTVs) are being evaluated in clinical trials. Understanding the perception of acceptability and confidence in NTVs will inform implementation strategies. Conclusion: NTV acceptability was high amongst these PWH, and they preferred community-based delivery models. Our findings may inform strategies to increase implementation of NTVs among PWH in South Africa.

New Tuberculosis vaccines for people with HIV

2025

Hypothetical vaccines

Mathematical modelling study assessing how different strategies for vaccinating people with and without HIV could reduce TB cases among people with HIV in high HIV/TB burden countries

FAST-TB MOD

2023-2026

Hypothetical vaccines

FAST-TB population and cost-effectiveness modelling core: This project will accelerate tuberculosis (TB) research translation by using mathematical modelling to address key priority questions as part of FAST TB, linking an expanded state-of-the-art modelling framework with country level data and cross consortium communication around new TB treatment regimens, diagnostics and other interventions.

Creating evidence to support tuberculosis (TB) national and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB

2024-2028

Hypothetical vaccines

In strong collaboration, we (India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, UK) will create evidence to strengthen capacity and sustainably support high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBC) and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB, by using modelling tools to address key questions on drug-resistant (DR-)TB, new TB vaccines and other interventions, and extend and apply a state-of-the-art TB model, to estimate the relative health, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact, of new and existing interventions, as well as their optimal combination.

Navigating the unknown: Ensuring equitable TB vaccine access to maximize health impact

2024

A scoping literature review is underway to identify key principles and strategies from existing vaccine allocation frameworks. The review focuses on vaccines utilized in routine and emergency contexts, including malaria, COVID-19, dengue, and meningococcal vaccines, among others.

Potential implications of reduced tuberculosis vaccine efficacy in those with undernutrition on overall vaccine impact in India

Hypothetical vaccines

Nutritional status is a leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB). In India up to half of all TB episodes are attributed to undernutrition. Given the impact of nutrition on the immune system, vaccine characteristics such as efficacy and duration of protection could vary depending on nutritional status. Therefore, previous vaccine impact estimates may be overestimated. We re estimated vaccine impact in India with reduced efficacy with undernutrition

Evaluating infectious disease prevention over the long term: implications of analytic horizon and scenario choices

2026

Hypothetical vaccines

A lifetime time horizon is conventional for cost-effectiveness analysis, but not routine for transmission-dynamic modeling given uncertainty in epidemiological dynamics and high computational costs. We demonstrate how choices about time horizon and analytic scenarios can influence cost-effectiveness estimates, using a case study of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccine introduction.