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Facing up to reality? What to do if M72/AS01E doses are limited

The Ph3 trial for the vaccine candidate M72/AS01E is underway, and, assuming a positive result, could be licensed by 2030. Modelling suggested a large potential impact from introducing M72/AS01E but assumed an unconstrained dose supply. However, at least initially, it is likely that M72/AS01E will be supply-constrained. We estimated the effect of decisions surrounding the allocation of constrained doses on the potential global impact of M72/AS01E

Willingness to receive a future adult tuberculosis vaccine in Lusaka, Zambia: Perspectives from community members and healthcare workers

Ongoing

One or more new adult TB vaccines could become available in the next 5-7 years. To assess willingness to receive a new TB vaccine, we conducted a household- and facility-based survey among adult community members and healthcare workers (HCWs), respectively, in Lusaka, Zambia

Cost and Cost Effectiveness of Novel Tuberculosis Vaccines in Low-and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review of Modelling Studies

hypothetical, M72/AS01e

Ongoing

This review addressed the costs and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines compared to the current standard of care (BCG) in various settings and for different age groups in LMICs

Advancing evidence-informed in-country decision-making for new TB vaccine introduction: A responsive and integrated vaccine modelling approach from India

hypothetical

Ongoing

As new TB vaccines move into late-stage development, it is imperative for high-burden countries like India to ensure timely and effective evidence-generation to inform decision-making and accelerate vaccine development and introduction. To enable this, an in-country vaccine mathematical modelling effort has been initiated in India.

TBVacMod

Ongoing

Estimate the health impact of introducing a prevention of disease vaccine for adult and adolescents in moderate to high TB burden countries. Explore different vaccine introduction scenarios based on input from country stakeholders, including national TB program and immunization program officials, on priority groups for vaccination and likely vaccine coverage. The project's key questions include: 1) who are the priority groups in different countries and what is expected level of vaccine coverage in those groups 2) how will vaccine impact differ in different introduction scenarios (vary age, priority group, coverage)

IGRA prevalence study

2024-2025

Planned

A cross-sectional study to determine IGRA positivity rate to assess eligibility for participation in tuberculosis (TB) vaccine efficacy trials

Insights into TB vaccine acceptability among adolescents in Khayelitsha through community engagement

Ongoing

Initially designed as an internal assessment of the impact of engagement workshops, we used short surveys to understand high-school learner perspectives of vaccines, focusing on COVID 19, TB and HIV vaccines. Between 2022 and 2024, we collected responses from 350 adolescents (14-18 years old). All participants live in Khayelitsha, where high rates of TB (4224 cases notified in the last year) intersect with socio-economic challenges

Modelling to estimate the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV

2023-2024

Hypothetical vaccine

Ongoing

This project will inform tuberculosis (TB) prevention efforts by estimating the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission model. HIV confers the largest relative risk of TB, and new TB vaccines could be an important tool to prevent TB; however, modelling studies have not systematically investigated how new vaccines will affect TB burden in PLHIV. In stage 1 of this project, we aim to investigate TB vaccine impact in PLHIV where vaccine product characteristics and delivery vary by recipient HIV status. In stage 2, we aim to quantify how complex vaccine targeting strategies and incorporating additional granularity in HIV/AIDS natural history might affect vaccine impact estimates in PLHIV

New tuberculosis vaccines are in late-stage trials, but how confident is the public in high burden countries in vaccines?

Ongoing

With tuberculosis (TB) vaccine candidates in late-stage trials, it is important to prepare for implementation to avoid delays upon licensure. General confidence in vaccines has been identified as an anticipated barrier to introducing new TB vaccines. In the absence of detailed TB specific vaccine acceptability and confidence data, we analysed currently available vaccine confidence data in countries appearing on one of the World Health Organization (WHO) high burden lists to investigate vaccine confidence in countries with a high TB burden

FAST-TB MOD

2023-2026

Hypothetical vaccine

Ongoing

FAST-TB population and cost-effectiveness modelling core: This project will accelerate tuberculosis (TB) research translation by using mathematical modelling to address key priority questions as part of FAST TB, linking an expanded state-of-the-art modelling framework with country level data and cross consortium communication around new TB treatment regimens, diagnostics and other interventions.