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Prevention of disease

Prevention of disease refers to the ability of the vaccine to protect individuals from becoming sick from the tuberculosis (TB) bacteria after exposure to it. It does not necessarily prevent a person from getting infected with the TB bacteria.

Part of Change 2.0

Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).

TBVacMod

Estimate the health impact of introducing a prevention of disease vaccine for adult and adolescents in moderate to high TB burden countries. Explore different vaccine introduction scenarios based on input from country stakeholders, including national TB program and immunization program officials, on priority groups for vaccination and likely vaccine coverage. The project's key questions include: 1) who are the priority groups in different countries and what is expected level of vaccine coverage in those groups 2) how will vaccine impact differ in different introduction scenarios (vary age, priority group, coverage)

A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options

Develops a new TB transmission model to help decision-makers comapre the epidemiological impact of different TB interventions and allocate resources. The model incorporates diagnosis, treatment, drug resistance, HIV status, age, and vaccination status, and was calibrated using data from 29 high burden countries. It demonstrates the potential impact of comprehensive TB interventions in Indonesia and Nigeria, including the possible use of a post-exposure TB vaccine

Community willingness towards a hypothetical new TB vaccine

Qualitative study exploring community willingness to accept a future TB vaccine in Nepal. It examines how knowledge, previous vaccination experiences, trust in health services, misinformation, perceived safety and effectiveness, costs, transportation, service delivery barriers and gender rleated actor influence willingness to receive a new TB vaccine

Modelling to estimate the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV

This project will inform tuberculosis (TB) prevention efforts by estimating the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission model. HIV confers the largest relative risk of TB, and new TB vaccines could be an important tool to prevent TB; however, modelling studies have not systematically investigated how new vaccines will affect TB burden in PLHIV. In stage 1 of this project, we aim to investigate TB vaccine impact in PLHIV where vaccine product characteristics and delivery vary by recipient HIV status. In stage 2, we aim to quantify how complex vaccine targeting strategies and incorporating additional granularity in HIV/AIDS natural history might affect vaccine impact estimates in PLHIV

FAST-TB MOD

FAST-TB population and cost-effectiveness modelling core: This project will accelerate tuberculosis (TB) research translation by using mathematical modelling to address key priority questions as part of FAST TB, linking an expanded state-of-the-art modelling framework with country level data and cross consortium communication around new TB treatment regimens, diagnostics and other interventions.

Creating evidence to support tuberculosis (TB) national and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB

In strong collaboration, we (India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, UK) will create evidence to strengthen capacity and sustainably support high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBC) and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB, by using modelling tools to address key questions on drug-resistant (DR-)TB, new TB vaccines and other interventions, and extend and apply a state-of-the-art TB model, to estimate the relative health, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact, of new and existing interventions, as well as their optimal combination.
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