Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in China, South Africa, and India
To inform vaccine development decision making, we modeled the impact of hypothetical tuberculosis vaccines in three high-burden countries.
Modelling
Modelling impact of TB vaccination vs other interventions/policies
Creating evidence to support tuberculosis decision-makers in reducing the global burden of Tuberculosis
Impact of targeted tuberculosis vaccination among a mining population in South Africa: A model based study
We developed an individual-based TB transmission model representing a hypothetical population consisting of people who worked in South African gold mines or lived in associated labor-sending communities. We simulated the implementation of a postinfection adult vaccine with 60% efficacy and a mean effect duration of 10 years.
Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India
we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population.
The health and economic benefits possible with novel tuberculosis vaccines – A modeling study in India and Indonesia
We estimated gains possible with novel post-exposure vaccines, in India and Indonesia. We modeled vaccine impact on TB incidence, TB mortality, and on national income growth and the intrinsic value of living longer, known as Full-income.
The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug resistant tuberculosis in India and China
We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India.
Is neglect of self-clearance biasing TB vaccine impact estimates?
exploring the inclusion of self-clearance in models of tuberculosis affects the estimates of vaccine impact in China and India
Meeting the 2030 End TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: a modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio.
From 2023 onwards we modelled a combination of interventions acting at different stages of the care cascade, including improved diagnostics; reducing the patient care seeking delay; and the rollout of a disease-preventing vaccine from 2025 onwards.
Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine
Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden.
Estimating the epidemiologic impact of new TB vaccines in high-burden settings
This is an NIH-funded study which will estimate the health impact of introducing a prevention of disease vaccine for adult and adolescents in moderate to high TB burden countries. We are developing model scenarios based on input from country stakeholders, including national TB program and immunization program officials.