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Hypothetical vaccines

A hypothetical TB vaccine refers to a vaccine that currently does not exist. It is a hypothetical scenario with a vaccine that may protect against infection and/or disease and/or recurrence to a certain extent. Usually WHO guidance is followed to inform these hypothetical vaccines (An investment case for new tuberculosis vaccines (who.int).

Global impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions

2026
Hypothetical vaccines
The modelling study compares the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of TB vaccination with other TB interventions. It models vaccination scale-up in Brazil, India, and South Africa and estimates that vaccination could prevent 15-28% of symptomatic TB episodes by 2050. It provides evidence to inform investment, policy, and planning for future TB vaccine introduction and scale-up.

Modelling to estimate the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV

2023-2024
Hypothetical vaccines
This project will inform tuberculosis (TB) prevention efforts by estimating the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission model. HIV confers the largest relative risk of TB, and new TB vaccines could be an important tool to prevent TB; however, modelling studies have not systematically investigated how new vaccines will affect TB burden in PLHIV. In stage 1 of this project, we aim to investigate TB vaccine impact in PLHIV where vaccine product characteristics and delivery vary by recipient HIV status. In stage 2, we aim to quantify how complex vaccine targeting strategies and incorporating additional granularity in HIV/AIDS natural history might affect vaccine impact estimates in PLHIV

FAST-TB MOD

2023-2026
Hypothetical vaccines
FAST-TB population and cost-effectiveness modelling core: This project will accelerate tuberculosis (TB) research translation by using mathematical modelling to address key priority questions as part of FAST TB, linking an expanded state-of-the-art modelling framework with country level data and cross consortium communication around new TB treatment regimens, diagnostics and other interventions.

Creating evidence to support tuberculosis (TB) national and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB

2024-2028
Hypothetical vaccines
In strong collaboration, we (India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, UK) will create evidence to strengthen capacity and sustainably support high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBC) and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB, by using modelling tools to address key questions on drug-resistant (DR-)TB, new TB vaccines and other interventions, and extend and apply a state-of-the-art TB model, to estimate the relative health, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact, of new and existing interventions, as well as their optimal combination.

Potential implications of reduced tuberculosis vaccine efficacy in those with undernutrition on overall vaccine impact in India

Hypothetical vaccines
Nutritional status is a leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB). In India up to half of all TB episodes are attributed to undernutrition. Given the impact of nutrition on the immune system, vaccine characteristics such as efficacy and duration of protection could vary depending on nutritional status. Therefore, previous vaccine impact estimates may be overestimated. We re estimated vaccine impact in India with reduced efficacy with undernutrition
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