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Hypothetical vaccines

A hypothetical TB vaccine refers to a vaccine that currently does not exist. It is a hypothetical scenario with a vaccine that may protect against infection and/or disease and/or recurrence to a certain extent. Usually WHO guidance is followed to inform these hypothetical vaccines (An investment case for new tuberculosis vaccines (who.int).

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries

2023

Hypothetical vaccines

Estimates the potential economic impact of introducing novel TB vaccines in 105 low- and middle- income countries. It compares ifnant and adolescents/ adult vaccination scenarios and models their effects on TB- related mortality, morbidity, healthcare costs and GDP. Finding support decision making on the future development and introduciton of novel TB vaccines

Cost and Cost Effectiveness of Novel Tuberculosis Vaccines in Low-and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review of Modelling Studies

Hypothetical vaccines, M72/AS01e

This review addressed the costs and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines compared to the current standard of care (BCG) in various settings and for different age groups in LMICs

Advancing evidence-informed in-country decision-making for new TB vaccine introduction: A responsive and integrated vaccine modelling approach from India

Hypothetical vaccines

As new TB vaccines move into late-stage development, it is imperative for high-burden countries like India to ensure timely and effective evidence-generation to inform decision-making and accelerate vaccine development and introduction. To enable this, an in-country vaccine mathematical modelling effort has been initiated in India.

Part of Change 2.0

2024-2027

Hypothetical vaccines

Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).

Acceptability of and confidence in novel tuberculosis vaccines among adults living with HIV

2026

Hypothetical vaccines

Objective: Several novel tuberculosis vaccines (NTVs) are being evaluated in clinical trials. Understanding the perception of acceptability and confidence in NTVs will inform implementation strategies. Conclusion: NTV acceptability was high amongst these PWH, and they preferred community-based delivery models. Our findings may inform strategies to increase implementation of NTVs among PWH in South Africa.

New Tuberculosis vaccines for people with HIV

2025

Hypothetical vaccines

Mathematical modelling study assessing how different strategies for vaccinating people with and without HIV could reduce TB cases among people with HIV in high HIV/TB burden countries

A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options

2026

Hypothetical vaccines

Develops a new TB transmission model to help decision-makers comapre the epidemiological impact of different TB interventions and allocate resources. The model incorporates diagnosis, treatment, drug resistance, HIV status, age, and vaccination status, and was calibrated using data from 29 high burden countries. It demonstrates the potential impact of comprehensive TB interventions in Indonesia and Nigeria, including the possible use of a post-exposure TB vaccine

Modelling to estimate the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV

2023-2024

Hypothetical vaccines

This project will inform tuberculosis (TB) prevention efforts by estimating the health impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on TB burden in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission model. HIV confers the largest relative risk of TB, and new TB vaccines could be an important tool to prevent TB; however, modelling studies have not systematically investigated how new vaccines will affect TB burden in PLHIV. In stage 1 of this project, we aim to investigate TB vaccine impact in PLHIV where vaccine product characteristics and delivery vary by recipient HIV status. In stage 2, we aim to quantify how complex vaccine targeting strategies and incorporating additional granularity in HIV/AIDS natural history might affect vaccine impact estimates in PLHIV

FAST-TB MOD

2023-2026

Hypothetical vaccines

FAST-TB population and cost-effectiveness modelling core: This project will accelerate tuberculosis (TB) research translation by using mathematical modelling to address key priority questions as part of FAST TB, linking an expanded state-of-the-art modelling framework with country level data and cross consortium communication around new TB treatment regimens, diagnostics and other interventions.

Creating evidence to support tuberculosis (TB) national and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB

2024-2028

Hypothetical vaccines

In strong collaboration, we (India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, UK) will create evidence to strengthen capacity and sustainably support high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBC) and global decision-makers in reducing the global burden of TB, by using modelling tools to address key questions on drug-resistant (DR-)TB, new TB vaccines and other interventions, and extend and apply a state-of-the-art TB model, to estimate the relative health, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact, of new and existing interventions, as well as their optimal combination.