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Advancing evidence-informed in-country decision-making for new TB vaccine introduction: A responsive and integrated vaccine modelling approach from India

As new TB vaccines move into late-stage development, it is imperative for high-burden countries like India to ensure timely and effective evidence-generation to inform decision-making and accelerate vaccine development and introduction. To enable this, an in-country vaccine mathematical modelling effort has been initiated in India.

Part of Change 2.0

2024-2027

Hypothetical vaccines

Planned

Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).

TB vaccine advocacy and acceptance in South Africa

2024

Completed

Gathering a range of perspectives to provide early-stage insights into TB vaccine advocacy and acceptance in South Africa

Prep4TBVax

2023-2025

M72/AS01e, MTBVAC

Planned

New TB vaccines are likely to be crucial in addressing the ongoing TB pandemic. With multiple promising vaccine candidates in the pipeline and the earliest availability of a candidate expected by 2028, it is of outmost importance that once available, the vaccine can be implemented rapidly and effectively. Limited research has looked at the delivery strategies available to provide a new TB vaccine to beneficiaries and therefore, this study assesses the acceptability and feasibility of delivery strategies for the vaccine candidates M72/AS01e and MTBVAC in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tajikistan.

Insights into TB vaccine acceptability among adolescents in Khayelitsha through community engagement

Ongoing

Initially designed as an internal assessment of the impact of engagement workshops, we used short surveys to understand high-school learner perspectives of vaccines, focusing on COVID 19, TB and HIV vaccines. Between 2022 and 2024, we collected responses from 350 adolescents (14-18 years old). All participants live in Khayelitsha, where high rates of TB (4224 cases notified in the last year) intersect with socio-economic challenges

Epidemiologic study to assess the IGRA positivity in populations with a high TB

2021 - 2024

M72/AS01e

Ongoing

Tuberculosis (TB) vaccine efficacy trials evaluating prevention of disease must be feasible in size and duration and would ideally take place at clinical trial sites that enroll from communities with the highest incidence rates. In preparation for the Phase 3 trial of the investigational M72/AS01E-4 vaccine, we conducted a multi-country study, using interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) positivity as a proxy for expected incidence of TB. In addition to the above objects, the results from this study could help in in new vaccine introduction to identfy TB hotspot areas.

The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug resistant tuberculosis in India and China

2021

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India.

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India

2016

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population.

The health and economic benefits possible with novel tuberculosis vaccines – A modeling study in India and Indonesia

2021

M72/AS01e

Completed

We estimated gains possible with novel post-exposure vaccines, in India and Indonesia. We modeled vaccine impact on TB incidence, TB mortality, and on national income growth and the intrinsic value of living longer, known as Full-income.

Making wider use of the world’s most widely used vaccine: Bacille Calmette-Guerin revaccination reconsidered

2013

BCG revaccination

Completed

This paper assesses the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of revaccinating adolescents in a setting with intense transmission—Cape Town, South Africa.