Building on the success of the recent applications of the FVVA framework, we see important new opportunities to maximize the future utility of FVVAs to country and global stakeholders and provide a proof-of-concept for analyses in other areas of disease control and prevention.
A workshop to asked high TB burden country experts about what epidemiological, impact, feasibility and acceptability data they anticipated they would need to guide TB vaccine introduction.
Using previously calibrated models for India and South Africa, we simulated BCG revaccination assuming 45% prevention-of-infection efficacy, and we evaluated scenarios varying additional prevention-of-disease efficacy between +50% (reducing risk) and −50% (increasing risk).
From 2023 onwards we modelled a combination of interventions acting at different stages of the care cascade, including improved diagnostics; reducing the patient care seeking delay; and the rollout of a disease-preventing vaccine from 2025 onwards.
Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden.