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Advancing evidence-informed in-country decision-making for new TB vaccine introduction: A responsive and integrated vaccine modelling approach from India

As new TB vaccines move into late-stage development, it is imperative for high-burden countries like India to ensure timely and effective evidence-generation to inform decision-making and accelerate vaccine development and introduction. To enable this, an in-country vaccine mathematical modelling effort has been initiated in India.

Part of Change 2.0

2024-2027

Hypothetical vaccines

Planned

Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).

TB vaccine advocacy and acceptance in South Africa

2024

Completed

Gathering a range of perspectives to provide early-stage insights into TB vaccine advocacy and acceptance in South Africa

Prep4TBVax

2023-2025

M72/AS01e, MTBVAC

Planned

New TB vaccines are likely to be crucial in addressing the ongoing TB pandemic. With multiple promising vaccine candidates in the pipeline and the earliest availability of a candidate expected by 2028, it is of outmost importance that once available, the vaccine can be implemented rapidly and effectively. Limited research has looked at the delivery strategies available to provide a new TB vaccine to beneficiaries and therefore, this study assesses the acceptability and feasibility of delivery strategies for the vaccine candidates M72/AS01e and MTBVAC in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tajikistan.

Insights into TB vaccine acceptability among adolescents in Khayelitsha through community engagement

Ongoing

Initially designed as an internal assessment of the impact of engagement workshops, we used short surveys to understand high-school learner perspectives of vaccines, focusing on COVID 19, TB and HIV vaccines. Between 2022 and 2024, we collected responses from 350 adolescents (14-18 years old). All participants live in Khayelitsha, where high rates of TB (4224 cases notified in the last year) intersect with socio-economic challenges

Mixed vaccination strategy for the control of tuberculosis: A case study in China

2017

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

This study first presents a mathematical model of TB transmission considering BCG vaccination compartment to investigate the transmission dynamics nowadays

Cost-effectiveness of routine adolescent vaccination with an M72/AS01E-like tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa and India

2022

M72/AS01e

Completed

We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of six scenarios of routine adolescent M72/AS01E-like vaccination in South Africa and India.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: Modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination

2023

BCG revaccination, M72/AS01e

Completed

We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies.

Evaluating vaccination strategies for tuberculosis in endemic and non-endemic settings

2019

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

We propose a continuous age-structured model for the epidemiology of tuberculosis with pre- and post-exposure vaccination. We use uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to make predictions about the efficacy of different vaccination strategies in a non-endemic setting (United States) and an endemic setting (Cambodia). In particular, we determine optimal age groups to target for pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccination in both settings.

Age-targeted tuberculosis vaccination in China and implications for vaccine development: a modelling study.

2019

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

We modelled the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines in China targeting adolescents (15–19 years) or older adults (60–64 years) with varying vaccine characteristics to inform strategic vaccine development.