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Facing up to reality? What to do if M72/AS01E doses are limited

M72/AS01e
Ongoing
The Ph3 trial for the vaccine candidate M72/AS01E is underway, and, assuming a positive result, could be licensed by 2030. Modelling suggested a large potential impact from introducing M72/AS01E but assumed an unconstrained dose supply. However, at least initially, it is likely that M72/AS01E will be supply-constrained. We estimated the effect of decisions surrounding the allocation of constrained doses on the potential global impact of M72/AS01E

Advancing evidence-informed in-country decision-making for new TB vaccine introduction: A responsive and integrated vaccine modelling approach from India

hypothetical
Ongoing
As new TB vaccines move into late-stage development, it is imperative for high-burden countries like India to ensure timely and effective evidence-generation to inform decision-making and accelerate vaccine development and introduction. To enable this, an in-country vaccine mathematical modelling effort has been initiated in India.

Part of Change 2.0

2024-2027
Hypothetical vaccines
Planned
Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).

Prep4TBVax

2023-2025
M72/AS01e, MTBVAC
Planned
New TB vaccines are likely to be crucial in addressing the ongoing TB pandemic. With multiple promising vaccine candidates in the pipeline and the earliest availability of a candidate expected by 2028, it is of outmost importance that once available, the vaccine can be implemented rapidly and effectively. Limited research has looked at the delivery strategies available to provide a new TB vaccine to beneficiaries and therefore, this study assesses the acceptability and feasibility of delivery strategies for the vaccine candidates M72/AS01e and MTBVAC in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tajikistan.

Potential implications of reduced tuberculosis vaccine efficacy in those with undernutrition on overall vaccine impact in India

Hypothetical vaccine
Ongoing
Nutritional status is a leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB). In India up to half of all TB episodes are attributed to undernutrition. Given the impact of nutrition on the immune system, vaccine characteristics such as efficacy and duration of protection could vary depending on nutritional status. Therefore, previous vaccine impact estimates may be overestimated. We re estimated vaccine impact in India with reduced efficacy with undernutrition

An effective vaccine is only the first step: the need to create and sustain demand for TB vaccines

2023
Completed
Understanding public willingness to receive new TB vaccines, as well as defining how to address any barriers to acceptance, will be key to ensuring that the promise of these vaccines can be fully realized. Although we can learn from previous vaccine intro ductions, it is imperative we close key research gaps specific to new TB vaccines. This will inform the development of interventions to generate and sustain high demand for TB vaccines in communities that stand to benefit the most

Feasibility of novel adult tuberculosis vaccination in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis

2022
M72/AS01e
Completed
We conducted expert interviews to identify plausible vaccination implementation strategies for the novel M72/AS01E vaccine candidate. The strategies were defined in terms of target population, coverage, vaccination schedule and delivery mode. We modelled these strategies to estimate long-term resource requirements and health benefits arising from vaccination over 2025–2050.
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