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Feasibility of novel adult tuberculosis vaccination in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis

2022

We conducted expert interviews to identify plausible vaccination implementation strategies for the novel M72/AS01E vaccine candidate. The strategies were defined in terms of target population, coverage, vaccination schedule and delivery mode. We modelled these strategies to estimate long-term resource requirements and health benefits arising from vaccination over 2025–2050.

Part of Change 2.0

2024-2027

Hypothetical vaccines

Planned

Actionable market intelligence, including vaccine demand forecast/scenarios, generated to strategically guide manufacturers and partners in their planning for introduction in high burden countries. The objectives include: 1. Strategic assessment of appropriate market-shaping interventions, 2.Stakeholder and decision process mapping , 3.Demand dynamics understanding and realistic market forecast development, 4. Commercialization strategy support for lead candidate(s).

Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in China, South Africa, and India

2020

BCG revaccination, M72/AS01e

Completed

To inform vaccine development decision making, we modeled the impact of hypothetical tuberculosis vaccines in three high-burden countries.

Impact of targeted tuberculosis vaccination among a mining population in South Africa: A model based study

2017

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

We developed an individual-based TB transmission model representing a hypothetical population consisting of people who worked in South African gold mines or lived in associated labor-sending communities. We simulated the implementation of a postinfection adult vaccine with 60% efficacy and a mean effect duration of 10 years.

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India

2016

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population.

Demand insights for uptake of TB vaccine

2022

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

Summarize the major swing factors that would determine countries’ preference and effectively drive the uptake of a TB vaccine in terms of the date of introduction and the scale of catch-up campaign to reach the steady state

TB case-finding in the context of future vaccines

2024-2027

Hypothetical vaccines

Planned

Scenarios for future TB vaccines’ characteristics within which the value and cost-effectiveness of present-day interventions can be explored

Population-level health and economic impacts of introducing Vaccae vaccination in China: a modelling study

2023

Vaccae

Completed

modelling the population-level health and economic impacts of introducing Vaccae vaccination to inform policy-makers in China

Is neglect of self-clearance biasing TB vaccine impact estimates?

2023

Hypothetical vaccines

Completed

exploring the inclusion of self-clearance in models of tuberculosis affects the estimates of vaccine impact in China and India

Bridging the gap: evaluating high TB burden country data needs to support the potential introduction of TB vaccines for adolescents and adults: a workshop report

2024

Completed

A workshop to asked high TB burden country experts about what epidemiological, impact, feasibility and acceptability data they anticipated they would need to guide TB vaccine introduction.